The number of Chinese married couples has decreased over the years. In 2024, only 6.1 million couples registered their marriage, which is the lowest registered marriage since 1986. A 20.83% drop in marriages has been recorded in China as compared to the previous year’s figures. Because of the decreasing marriage rate, questions arise – how will this impact the population growth and economic stability of China in future?
Why marriage rate is declining in China?
Rising living cost
Several factors contribute to the decline of the marriage rate in China. First of all, the rising living costs are a significant factor for which Chinese women do not want to get married and start a family. An individual required a monthly cost of CNY 3,808 (approximately $524) without rent. Moreover, the high costs of education, child care, healthcare and so on discourage most young couples from settling down. Not only this, most of the people suffer from job insecurity, stagnant wages and so on for which marriages became a financial burden for them.
Changing attitudes of Chinese women towards marriage
In ancient China, there was a tradition that women needed to get married at a very young age. However, nowadays, women are getting more educated and financially strong which has been contributing to their changing attitudes towards marriage. Nowadays women are more driven by self-development and career goals. Additionally, job discrimination against women in China is a common factor, for which it became difficult for Chinese women to handle both jobs and children leading to a changed perception towards marriages.
Gender imbalance
Because of the growing population, in the late 1970s, the Chinese government brought a one-child policy to reduce the growth rate of the enormous population of China. This policy resulted in gender imbalance because sex-selective abortions favouring boys were started. As a consequence, millions of men struggle to find spouses. Women, conversely, have higher expectations from men to have strong financial capabilities and shared values to make their marriages more successful leading to a reduction of couples registering their marriages.
A shrinking population of young adults
Another key factor of the low marriage rate in China is the shrinking population of young adults in China. In 2023, the total birth rate dropped by 5.7% and as a result, the age group from 20-34, the marriageable age group, significantly decreased. Because fewer marriageable adults are available and most of them are highly focused on building career and personal freedom, people lose interest about getting settling down with a partner.
Declining interest of people in parenthood
In China, raising a child from birth to the age of 17 costs around CNY 538,000 (approximately $75,000) and to complete their graduation the cost becomes CNY 680,000 (approximately $95,000). The average annual salary for Chinese people is around CNY 353,000 (approximately $49,000). This means, that raising a child in China costs nearly twice the average annual salary and creates a financial burden on the parents. Henceforth, young people are losing interest in parenthood to avoid the financial burden.
Long-term impact on population and economy
The population of China is constantly dropping in the last three years. The birth rate decreased by 5.7%, whereas the death rate increased by 6.6%. It might be shocking for the economic and societal stability of China. Even the total fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022.
This growing concern of decreasing marriage rate and fertility rate can cause labour shortage in the long term. The younger adult age group people are slowly shrinking, and in the upcoming years, it might happen that there will be just fewer younger workers who are contributing to highly productive and creative work. This can slow the economic growth of the country in the long term.
Moreover, the social structure of China might get disrupted if the marriage rate continuously dropped by years. There will be no traditional family system presence in China. People might suffer from emotional instability and China might become a weak economy with an emotionally unstable and older population.
Additionally, if there are no young adults present in the country, the military power might be weakened. The recruitment pool for the armed forces might shrink because of the threat of a lack of young adults. This might weaken the national defence of China.
Chinese Government initiatives to address the issue
Marriage incentive
To address the demographic challenge due to the falling marriage rate in China, the local authorities are offering incentives to those couples who are registering their marriages. An example of Luliang City of Shanxi province can be highlighted. Couples are offering an incentive of CNY 1500 (around $205), which is equivalent to half a month’s average salary for urban workers and a full month’s average salary for rural workers.
Subsidies for newborns
The local authorities of China are also offering subsidies to increase the birth rate by addressing the shrinking marriage rate. Every couple has been offering a subsidiary of CNY 2000 (around $280) for the first baby, CNY 5000 (around $700) for the second baby and CNY 8000 (around $1,120) for the third child. Not only this, medical insurance also be contributed. However, Tianmen in Hubei province of China has been offering subsidies of around CNY 165,000 (around $23,100) for those families who have three children.
Revision to three-child policy
In 2021, China brought major changes in the one-child policy and announced a three-child policy by highlighting that couples can have three children and those who go beyond the limit need to pay a penalty to the government. However, the local governments also encourage to provision of parental leave, enhancing the childcare infrastructure and boosting the employment rights of women to encourage couples to have children.
Campaigns to encourage marriages
The local governments of China are organising local events or campaigns to encourage younger people to find their partners and get married. Even married women are used to getting calls from local authorities with the offer of subsidies to have two or three children if they have only one or two children. In universities, love courses are introduced for single students to encourage them to be in relationships. Regular articles are also published highlighting the importance of getting married and having children.
How successful are the initiatives of the government?
Although the government is trying their full potential to promote marriage and the three-child policy, young people are still hesitating to be in a relationship, get married and have children worsening the condition of the waning marriage rate. To avail the benefits of the government, over 400 couples registered their marriage according to the Luliang’s marriage registry. However, still some couples are hesitant and they admit that they will marry later.
The living costs are still high in China. Therefore, if young people still decide to get married they might find financial burden because the local government used to spread the incentives and subsidies according to the financial conditions of people.
Moreover, the changing attitude of young people, especially women, because of men and women’s polarisation rate, is a big challenge to successfully implement the policies. Women, nowadays, are more personalised growth and career development mindset-driven. Therefore, the government needs to change the root, which is socially and economically driven, to address the problem of declining marriage rates and birth rates.
FAQ
1. Why is the marriage rate declining in China?
Several factors contribute to the decline of the marriage rate in China. First of all, the rising living costs are a significant factor for which Chinese women do not want to get married and start a family. Moreover, the high costs of education, child care, healthcare, and so on discourage most young couples from settling down. Not only this, most people suffer from job insecurity, stagnant wages, and so on, for which marriages became a financial burden for them.
2. How does the rising cost of living impact marriage and childbirth in China?
An individual requires a monthly cost of CNY 3,808 (approximately $524) without rent. Moreover, the high costs of education, child care, healthcare, and so on discourage most young couples from settling down. Not only this, most of the people suffer from job insecurity, stagnant wages, and so on, for which marriages became a financial burden for them.
3. What role does gender imbalance play in the declining marriage rate?
Because of the growing population, in the late 1970s, the Chinese government brought a one-child policy to reduce the growth rate of the enormous population of China. This policy resulted in gender imbalance because sex-selective abortions favoring boys were started. Women, conversely, have higher expectations from men to have strong financial capabilities and shared values to make their marriages more successful, leading to a reduction of couples registering their marriages.
4. How is the shrinking population of young adults affecting marriage trends in China?
Another key factor of the low marriage rate in China is the shrinking population of young adults in China. In 2023, the total birth rate dropped by 5.7%, and as a result, the age group from 20-34, the marriageable age group, significantly decreased. Because fewer marriageable adults are available and most of them are highly focused on building careers and personal freedom, people lose interest in settling down with a partner.
5. What incentives is the Chinese government offering to encourage marriage?
To address the demographic challenge due to the falling marriage rate in China, the local authorities are offering incentives to those couples who are registering their marriages. An example of Luliang City in Shanxi province can be highlighted. Couples are offering an incentive of CNY 1500 (around $205), which is equivalent to half a month’s average salary for urban workers and a full month’s average salary for rural workers.
6. What subsidies is the Chinese government offering to encourage childbirth?
The local authorities of China are also offering subsidies to increase the birth rate by addressing the shrinking marriage rate. Every couple has been offered a subsidy of CNY 2000 (around $280) for the first baby, CNY 5000 (around $700) for the second baby, and CNY 8000 (around $1,120) for the third child.
7. How effective are government initiatives in reversing the declining marriage rate?
Although the government is trying their full potential to promote marriage and the three-child policy, young people are still hesitating to be in a relationship, get married, and have children, worsening the condition of the waning marriage rate.
8. What long-term economic and social impacts could arise from the declining marriage rate in China?
This growing concern of decreasing marriage rate and fertility rate can cause a labor shortage in the long term. The younger adult age group people are slowly shrinking, and in the upcoming years, it might happen that there will be just fewer younger workers who are contributing to highly productive and creative work. This can slow the economic growth of the country in the long term.
