SUMMARY
- India’s Rafale jets with SCALP missiles were reportedly used in a major retaliatory strike inside Pakistani-controlled territory.
- Pakistan claims to have shot down multiple Indian aircraft using its surface-to-air missile systems.
- Despite nuclear parity, India holds a decisive edge in conventional firepower, raising fears of prolonged military confrontation.
Missile Deterrence and Air Superiority: A New Chapter in the India–Pakistan Military Escalation
The delicate balance of deterrence between India and Pakistan has once again tipped toward volatility. Following India’s airstrikes in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir—its most expansive in years—concerns of an irreversible escalation are no longer theoretical. For the first time since 2019, both nuclear-armed neighbours have publicly mobilized advanced air assets and openly acknowledged airspace confrontations, a reminder of just how quickly military deterrence can morph into active engagement.
At the heart of this shift lies the deployment of Rafale fighter jets by the Indian Air Force, reportedly armed with SCALP air-to-ground cruise missiles. These strikes come in response to last month’s deadly militant attack in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir, allegedly carried out by Pakistan-backed groups. While India stated its targets were terrorist camps, Pakistan alleged civilian areas and mosques were hit—amplifying the fog of war and sharpening global anxieties.
As news of missile exchanges and downed jets floods the media, it’s not just the use of firepower that signals a dangerous turn. It’s the unmistakable clarity of intent. Both sides are engaged in a high-stakes messaging war, using military capability not merely for retaliation, but to rewrite the boundaries of strategic tolerance. This article examines that message from three lenses—firepower, escalation potential, and nuclear restraint.
Indian Air Force used Rafales armed with French scalp cruise missiles to hit targets in Pakistan with precision.
— The Armoury Brief (@TheArmouryBrief) May 7, 2025
Scalp is a long range low – observable cruise missile designed to hit targets deep inside enemy territory. Scalp has a range of 500km+ and a 450kg warhead capacity pic.twitter.com/6VaUFsRBwg
Strike Hard, Signal Loud: India’s Rafales and Precision Power Projection
- India’s Rafale jets reportedly carried out precision strikes with SCALP cruise missiles.
- Pakistan claims to have downed five Indian aircraft, including three Rafales.
- Surface-to-air missile activity by Pakistan signals a new level of military confrontation.
India’s use of Rafale jets armed with French-origin SCALP missiles—capable of penetrating hardened shelters up to 250 km away—underscores a tectonic shift in regional air power dynamics. The Rafale fleet, totaling 36 aircraft by 2024, was procured with a specific focus: delivering surgical deterrence. The current airstrike mission appears to be the culmination of that doctrine.
According to Sky News, India’s assault reportedly focused on terror camps in Pakistani-controlled areas, but Pakistan’s counter-narrative includes allegations of attacks on civilian infrastructure. What remains clear, however, is that this is not a repetition of Balakot or Uri. This is Operation Sindoor: technologically robust, multi-domain, and unapologetically public.
In response, Islamabad claims to have activated over 200 SAM systems, reportedly shooting down five Indian jets. While those claims remain unverified, the invocation of surface-to-air warfare points to a dangerous new normal: a battlefield where modern air power, cyber targeting, and rapid counterstrikes converge in real-time.
The Hard Math of Escalation: Military Might and Risk Appetite
- India ranks 4th globally in military strength; Pakistan ranks 12th.
- India’s active personnel double Pakistan’s in every service branch.
- Defence experts say India would win in a conventional war, but smaller confrontations favor Pakistan.
The raw figures tell a stark story. According to Global Firepower, India’s military ranks fourth in the world with over 1.4 million active personnel, while Pakistan trails at 12th with less than half that strength. India possesses a superior number of tanks, aircraft, and naval platforms, as well as more than 800 surface-to-air missile systems across its tri-services.
Yet military advantage doesn’t guarantee strategic success. Analysts, including Sky’s Professor Michael Clarke, warn that “below the level of war,” Pakistan might still hold leverage. Its familiarity with asymmetric responses—ranging from tactical infiltration to drone incursions—can create chaos disproportionate to its scale. If India escalates conventionally, Pakistan may respond unconventionally.
This is why the term “measured” is doing heavy diplomatic lifting in Delhi’s statements. India wants to be seen as retaliating with restraint, but prepared to widen the conflict if provoked further. That careful calibration is what makes this escalation so volatile.
Nuclear Parity, Strategic Restraint: Walking the Edge of the Red Line
- Both India and Pakistan possess ~180 and ~170 nuclear warheads respectively.
- Experts agree that nuclear weapons will only be used if national survival is at stake.
- Despite heated rhetoric, the Kashmir conflict remains below the existential threshold.
Amid the artillery fire, downed jets, and military movements, one chilling fact remains constant: both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. India holds an estimated 180 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan possesses around 170. In every calculation of escalation, this parity looms large.
So why hasn’t it escalated to nuclear threats? Experts say that despite growing hostility, both nations operate under clear strategic doctrines. “Nuclear weapons would only be used by any country if its existence is at stake,” says Clarke. “Nothing that happens in Kashmir threatens the existence of Pakistan or India.”
That said, the fear lies not in intention but in miscalculation. The last time India and Pakistan flirted with nuclear escalation was in 1999 during the Kargil War. Twenty-five years later, the stakes are arguably higher, and the pace of escalation is faster. While nuclear deterrence may hold, it cannot sanitize conventional conflict.
The Final Word: Below the War Line, Beyond the Red Line
What Operation Sindoor has revealed is not just India’s military preparedness, but its shifting thresholds for engagement. In earlier decades, retaliation was secretive, defensive, or symbolic. Today, it’s deliberate, strategic, and wide-ranging. Pakistan’s counter-response with drone swarms and SAMs confirms that both sides are redefining what lies below the so-called red line.
Yet, even as firepower dominates the headlines, diplomacy lurks in the background. Neither nation wants total war, but both are willing to test each other’s limits. The escalation in India Pakistan military escalation 2025 is as much about psychology as it is about weaponry. That delicate balance—between message and misfire—will determine whether this standoff becomes a turning point or just another dark chapter in a long history of near-misses.
