Summary
- A reported US-Israel deal proposes transferring Gaza’s governance to Arab nations, including the UAE, post-Hamas.
- The plan is backed by Donald Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu, aligned with the Abraham Accords’ expansion.
- If implemented, the plan could shift Middle East power dynamics and redefine Palestinian statehood negotiations.
Abraham Accords Reloaded: A New Model for Gaza’s Post-War Future
In a major geopolitical maneuver emerging after the Iran-Israel ceasefire, the United States and Israel appear to be reshaping Gaza’s future—and potentially the broader Middle East. At the heart of this transformation lies a bold, high-level diplomatic initiative: removing Hamas from power and transferring Gaza’s administrative control to four Arab nations, reportedly including the United Arab Emirates. Spearheaded by former U.S. President Donald Trump, current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this effort is more than a peace plan—it is a strategic pivot aligning with the Abraham Accords, now poised for a dramatic second phase.
While public confirmation remains cautious, leaks from Israeli media outlet Israel Hayom suggest an advanced stage of planning. Trump, who is eyeing both legacy and leverage in the 2026 U.S. elections, reportedly envisions the Gaza shift as a symbol of decisive conflict resolution and Arab-Israeli cooperation. The UAE, often cast as the diplomatic linchpin of the Gulf, has not publicly confirmed its participation—but insiders believe coordination with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Jordan may be quietly underway.
This new strategy hinges on two key components: Hamas’ complete political exit, and Arab nations’ willingness to assume a policing and governance role in one of the world’s most volatile regions. If successful, the plan could redefine Arab-Israeli normalization—and potentially change the calculus of Palestinian statehood negotiations.
🚨#Breaking
— John (@JohnnyCali_) June 26, 2025
Trump and Netanyahu Reportedly Finalize Gaza Peace Plan After U.S. Strikes on Iran, Per Israel Hayom
Gaza conflict to end in two weeks, with UAE, Egypt, and two Arab states governing Gaza, replacing Hamas. Hamas leaders exiled, hostages freed, and Abraham Accords… pic.twitter.com/afQF5qRMFA
What We Know So Far: The Shape of the Deal Emerging
- Trump and Marco Rubio have held direct talks with Netanyahu and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.
- The plan reportedly includes conditional recognition of Palestinian statehood by Israel in exchange for Arab administration of Gaza.
- The US aims to use this framework to expand the Abraham Accords, drawing more Arab nations into formal normalization with Israel.
- Israeli forces would withdraw after Hamas leadership is dismantled, handing governance to participating Arab nations.
- The plan could be announced within two weeks, signaling a new diplomatic phase post the Iran-Israel ceasefire.
The geopolitical timing is critical. The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran has created a fragile window of opportunity. With over 60,000 reported casualties since October 7, 2023, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has escalated beyond military calculations. Western powers, particularly the U.S., are now under pressure to offer more than just ceasefires—they need long-term governance solutions. The UAE, having played a lead role in past Abraham Accords diplomacy, is seen as a moderate, modernizing force that could stabilize Gaza—at least administratively.
Sources suggest that in return, Israel may offer support—tacit or explicit—for a two-state framework, though one redefined by Israel’s terms and American mediation. At the same time, Washington might formally recognize additional Israeli claims to contested territories as a concession to Netanyahu’s hardline government.
The Risks and Fault Lines in the Peace Plan
- Arab public opinion remains largely pro-Palestinian; any nation joining the plan may face domestic backlash.
- Hamas’ removal is not guaranteed; resistance within Gaza could destabilize any imposed governance.
- The plan risks being perceived as externally imposed, sidelining actual Palestinian representation.
- Questions remain about legal legitimacy, funding, and operational logistics of Arab-led governance in Gaza.
The political minefield is vast. The UAE, Jordan, and Egypt have walked a tightrope between diplomacy and popular sentiment, and this plan could strain that balance. A “foreign” administration—even if Arab—may still be seen by Gazans as illegitimate if imposed without electoral consent.
Moreover, sidelining Palestinian civil society and the Palestinian Authority could deepen the fragmentation of Palestinian representation, already split between Hamas-controlled Gaza and the PA-run West Bank. There’s also the looming question of whether Hamas will be militarily dismantled or allowed a negotiated exit—both scenarios are fraught with risks.
Critics argue the plan reflects more of a “managed stabilization” than true sovereignty. Others, especially those on the Israeli and American right, praise it as a long-overdue departure from endless wars and futile ceasefires.
Beyond Conflict: Could This Redefine the Middle East Map?
- The Abraham Accords may be evolving from trade normalization to regional power-sharing.
- A “Gaza without Hamas” could shift Israeli domestic politics ahead of potential 2026 elections.
- The U.S. role as an arbiter in the Middle East could be solidified or undermined depending on plan execution.
- Iran’s reaction will be pivotal—any perception of Sunni Arab collusion with Israel could reignite proxy tensions.
If this Gaza plan proceeds, it will mark a new chapter in Middle Eastern diplomacy—less focused on bilateral peace treaties and more on multinational power rebalancing. The inclusion of Arab states as governance stakeholders sets a precedent that could extend to post-conflict Syria, Lebanon, or even Yemen.
But success depends on subtlety, legitimacy, and above all, coordination. Any misstep could trigger a blowback not only in Gaza but across Arab capitals. Iran’s axis, from Hezbollah to Houthis, will almost certainly frame the move as a betrayal. In contrast, if managed deftly, the move could draw countries like Saudi Arabia further into the Abraham Accords orbit, bringing long-sought diplomatic recognition between Riyadh and Tel Aviv closer.
Unwritten Borders, Unanswered Questions
The plan to replace Hamas with a UAE-led Arab governance coalition in Gaza is ambitious, geopolitically charged, and fraught with contradictions. It may reshape the way diplomacy, military disengagement, and state-building are imagined in conflict zones. But it also raises fundamental questions: Who speaks for the Palestinians? What does statehood mean if defined by outsiders? And how long can imposed peace last without consent?
In this moment, Gaza becomes more than a battleground. It becomes a laboratory for a new world order—brokered in Washington and Tel Aviv, administered by Abu Dhabi, and watched closely in Tehran and Ramallah.
Only time—and politics—will tell if this is the beginning of peace or just a pause in a larger storm.
