Trinamool’s Muslim Vote Bank Faces Existential Threat: Humayun Kabir Warns Ahead of 2026 Bengal Polls

Key Highlights

• Suspended Trinamool MLA Humayun Kabir vows to launch a new party on December 22, directly targeting Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank with an AIMIM alliance.
• Kabir laid the foundation for a Babri Masjid replica in Murshidabad, drawing massive crowds and claiming broad support from communities reliant on Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
• He pledges to contest 135 seats in the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections, positioning himself as a game-changer against the vulnerabilities in Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Crisis Erupts in Bengal Politics

Humayun Kabir’s explosive claim that Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank will be finished has sent shockwaves through West Bengal politics just months before the 2026 assembly elections. The suspended Trinamool Congress MLA from Murshidabad issued this dire warning after laying the foundation stone for a proposed Babri Masjid replica in Beldanga on December 6, 2025. Kabir, previously a steadfast party loyalist, now emerges as a formidable disruptor, pledging to establish his own political outfit on December 22 and pursue an alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM to dismantle Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Heightened communal tensions surround this development, as Kabir asserts eight lakh people turned out for the event despite lacking police support. Donations of bricks and cash flooded in from districts such as Malda, North Dinajpur, and South 24-Parganas, overwhelming National Highway-12. Kabir’s dramatic rhetoric, including the cinematic line “picture abhi baki hai,” highlights his determination to thwart Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s fourth-term ambitions by eroding Trinamool’s vote bank. He confidently states neither Trinamool nor BJP will govern next, drawing on funding from Muslim communities and industries across India.

West Bengal’s electoral landscape remains deeply polarized, with Muslims comprising nearly 27% of the population according to the 2011 Census of India. This demographic has been central to Trinamool’s vote bank, powering the party’s two-thirds majority in 2021 even as BJP gained ground. Kabir’s uprising endangers this equilibrium, particularly in Muslim-heavy districts like Murshidabad, where over 66% of voters belong to this group based on 2021 Election Commission data. His maneuvers expose profound cracks within Trinamool’s vote bank as polls loom by May 2026.

He is West Bengal Owaisi. Supporting BJP.

"Trinamool's Muslim Vote Bank Will Be Finished": Suspended MLA's Warninghttps://t.co/W8fZeNdEVY

— Nasrullah P (@nasrullahp67) December 7, 2025

Kabir’s Rebel Blueprint Unveiled

• New party set for December 22 launch in Behrampore, dedicated to safeguarding interests tied to Trinamool’s vote bank.
• Ambitious plan to contest 135 of Bengal’s 294 assembly seats, focusing on areas where Trinamool’s vote bank dominates.
• Active pursuit of AIMIM alliance, with Kabir citing conversations with Owaisi to challenge Trinamool’s vote bank.

Humayun Kabir’s approach revolves around capturing disillusioned voters from Trinamool’s vote bank by offering a dedicated alternative. He plans to retain his MLA seat initially, leveraging it to boost his platform’s visibility. “I will form a new party that will work for Muslims,” Kabir declared, casting himself as Bengal’s counterpart to Owaisi in assaulting Trinamool’s vote bank. Although AIMIM has yet to confirm involvement, Kabir’s influence in Murshidabad, home to a 70% Muslim population per state records, bolsters his position.

Kabir presents the Babri Masjid replica as an emblem of pride and defiance against Trinamool’s alleged shortcomings, further straining Trinamool’s vote bank. The foundation event’s magnitude, marked by tractors delivering bricks from remote regions, demonstrates robust grassroots energy aimed at fracturing Trinamool’s vote bank. He anticipates support from industrialists and wealthy Muslim contributors to finance both the structure and his campaign against Trinamool’s vote bank. While Trinamool captured 66.76% of Muslim votes in 2021 according to Lokniti-CSDS surveys, Kabir foresees this bloc abandoning the party.

Positioned as an unpredictable force, Kabir targets 135 constituencies where Muslims surpass 30% of voters, per West Bengal State Election Commission figures, directly undermining Trinamool’s vote bank. His stance against both Trinamool’s secular stance and BJP’s Hindu focus promises to fragment Trinamool’s vote bank in pivotal contests.

Trinamool Faces Internal Storm

• Swift suspension of Kabir over Babri plan, reaffirming secular credentials amid threats to Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
• Huge crowds at the event reveal growing discontent within Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
• Banerjee’s 2021 triumph hinged on near-total control of Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank in critical zones.

Trinamool Congress contends with severe repercussions from Kabir’s rebellion, which lays bare weaknesses in Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. Leaders moved quickly to suspend him, condemning the Babri initiative as divisive, though Kabir dismisses it as superficial theater. The foundation gathering’s success points to simmering dissatisfaction, framing it as pushback against Trinamool’s governance and BJP’s tactics, eroding Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Mamata Banerjee has built her stronghold on unifying minorities, with Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank decisive in securing 213 seats in 2021 across 130 key areas per assembly records. Kabir’s bid to challenge nearly half the seats strikes at the heart of Trinamool’s vote bank, compounded by BJP’s expansion to 77 seats that cycle via Election Commission tallies. Murshidabad’s 66.28% Muslim electorate from 2021 voter lists magnifies Kabir’s potential to splinter Trinamool’s vote bank.

Internal tensions flare as Banerjee resists BJP incursions, yet figures like Kabir capitalize on local issues to weaken Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. His assertions of backing from Muslim enterprises contest the party’s resource superiority. With elections approaching, this turmoil risks diminishing the commanding lead Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank provided in 2021.

BJP Capitalizes on Communal Rift

• BJP accuses Kabir’s actions of being a Trinamool tactic to inflame divisions in Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
• Concerns mount over Hindu unity as Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank fragments ahead of 2026.
• Saffron party targets districts mirroring Murshidabad for breakthroughs against Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Bharatiya Janata Party exploits Humayun Kabir’s uproar, branding it a Trinamool scheme to ignite strife and destabilize Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. Bengal BJP president Samik Bhattacharya branded the suspension performative, alleging deeper party ties to divisive legacies. Union Minister Sukanta Majumdar cautioned that a Babri-named mosque disrespects Hindus, foretelling retaliation that could further isolate Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

BJP’s 2021 leap from 3 to 77 seats stemmed from Hindu cohesion, securing 92% of those votes per CSDS studies, with Kabir’s efforts inadvertently reinforcing this by spotlighting Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank mobilization. In Murshidabad, BJP’s share rose from 5% in 2016 to 28% in 2021 under ECI figures, indicating momentum against Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Ironically, Kabir’s pledge to prevent BJP rule may propel saffron advances by scattering Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. As 2026 nears, BJP hones strategies around this schism, prioritizing over 100 seats with strong Hindu majorities to counterbalance Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Strategic Alliances and Future Gambles

• AIMIM partnership discussions pending, as Kabir emulates Owaisi’s approach to erode Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
• Reliance on Muslim and industrial funding to fuel assaults on Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
• Potential for multi-cornered fights where splitting Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank aids BJP.

Humayun Kabir’s AIMIM overtures mark a bold play to mirror Owaisi’s triumphs in Bengal, accelerating the decline of Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. Lacking Owaisi’s endorsement so far, Kabir styles himself as Bengal’s Owaisi, honing in on defections from Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. Such a pact might deploy unified candidates in vital races, tapping AIMIM’s reach to dismantle Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Sustained financing underpins the effort, with Kabir pointing to Muslim resources for the mosque and political push against Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. West Bengal’s Muslim populace stood at 27.01 million in the 2011 Registrar General of India Census, estimated at 32 million by 2025 through state projections, forming a potent reservoir beyond Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. Challenges persist, however, as spreading across 135 seats could fragment efforts to truly shatter Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Closing Assessment

Humayun Kabir’s offensive against Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank fundamentally alters Bengal’s path to the 2026 polls, merging symbolism with raw strategy. The planned December 22 party debut and AIMIM feelers imperil the core constituency that anchored Trinamool’s reign since 2011. Though Kabir aims to thwart both major players, BJP stands poised to gain from the splintering of Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.

Bengal’s electoral equation hangs by a thread, with a 27% minority bloc influencing over 100 seats through Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank. Kabir’s Babri endeavor, fueled by enthusiastic masses, heralds rising rebellion, yet its longevity depends on partnerships and capital. Nearing the vote, Kabir’s assertion of transformative power will reveal if Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank fortress holds firm or collapses entirely.