SUMMARY
- Trinamool’s Abhishek Banerjee predicts BJP will be capped at 50 seats in 2026, down from 77 in 2021.
- Comes a week after CM Mamata Banerjee claimed BJP would be reduced to zero in West Bengal.
- BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari hits back with a challenge to defeat Trinamool in key constituencies like Falta and Diamond Harbour.
Diamond Harbour Sets the Stage for 2026: Trinamool Declares Political War
Abhishek Banerjee, Trinamool Congress’s general secretary and the political heir apparent to Mamata Banerjee, has ignited fresh political tremors in West Bengal with a bold assertion: the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), he claims, will not win more than 50 seats in the 2026 state Assembly elections. This announcement—made in his constituency Diamond Harbour—is not only a projection, but a strategic counter-narrative to the BJP’s aggressive electoral machinery. Just a week earlier, his aunt and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had declared on the floor of the Assembly that BJP would be wiped out of the state entirely.
With the political stakes rising fast, Banerjee’s projection is being viewed as both a show of Trinamool’s confidence and a calibrated message to cadres across Bengal. But BJP’s Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari has swiftly retaliated, vowing to wrest control of both Diamond Harbour and Falta from the ruling party. The stage is now set for a high-stakes electoral duel that could redefine Bengal’s political map.
“The People Are Ready — It’s Time for 'Bidaay Jananor Pala' to BJP”: @abhishekaitc Predicts BJP Will Drop Below 50 Seats in 2026, Cites 11 Years of Trinamool Wins and Failing Central Government#ByeByeBJP #AbhishekBanerjee #2026BengalElection #IndiaWantsMamataDi pic.twitter.com/Z0qYaB2sjo
— India Wants Mamata Di (@IndiaWantsMB) June 26, 2025
The Numbers Game and the Confidence Curve
- Abhishek Banerjee predicted a BJP downfall from 77 seats in 2021 to under 50 in 2026.
- He cited developmental works funded through his MPLADs from 2014 to 2024 to reinforce his performance-based appeal.
- Mamata Banerjee had earlier predicted “zero seats” for BJP, doubling down on the party’s electoral confidence.
- Suvendu Adhikari countered by targeting Abhishek’s home turf—Diamond Harbour—for defeat.
Abhishek’s prediction came as he unveiled a report card of development projects in Diamond Harbour, where he has won three consecutive Lok Sabha terms since 2014 with increasing margins. While doing so, he invoked both the credibility of Mamata’s Lakshmir Bhandar scheme and the perceived failures of BJP-ruled states. “They promise Rs. 3,000 to women. I challenge them to give even half of what we give in Bengal,” he said, calling out BJP’s delivery gap on social welfare.
The speech also took a swipe at past defections from Trinamool to BJP. “Before 2021, they said it was over for us when Dipak Haldar and Sonali Guha left. But Trinamool won all seven Assembly seats under my Lok Sabha seat,” he reminded.
BJP Counters with Regional Firepower
- Suvendu Adhikari responded to Abhishek’s remarks with a challenge to defeat Trinamool in Diamond Harbour and Falta.
- He reframed the narrative by positioning BJP as the rising force in key eastern states like Tripura, Assam, and Odisha.
- BJP leaders say Mamata and Abhishek are deflecting attention from governance issues like corruption and unemployment.
While the BJP has yet to release its official seat target for West Bengal in 2026, Adhikari’s pushback signals that the party will not let the Trinamool’s declarations go unanswered. “We have defeated them before and we’ll do it again, including in Diamond Harbour,” Adhikari said, referring to BJP’s 18-seat win in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the state—a performance that many see as a turning point in Bengal’s political balance.
Behind this verbal sparring lies a deeper strategic war over perception. Trinamool is banking on welfare schemes and local leadership credibility. The BJP, on the other hand, aims to expand its Hindutva-social justice base while painting Trinamool as dynastic and corrupt.
Why 2026 Is Not 2021: The Emerging Fault Lines
- Abhishek Banerjee’s framing of 2026 as a “development vs defection” election suggests a shift in TMC’s narrative toolkit.
- BJP is expected to rely more on national leaders and central schemes, while TMC emphasizes state-specific achievements.
- The public exchange reveals both parties are already in campaign mode, with constituency-level targeting underway.
What’s evident is that the 2026 election won’t merely be a replay of 2021. The BJP’s national footprint has expanded, while the Trinamool’s regional grip remains ironclad. But both sides have internal vulnerabilities. For Trinamool, corruption allegations in school recruitment and municipal contracts could resurface. For BJP, its lack of grassroots presence in rural Bengal remains a strategic handicap.
Abhishek’s remarks are thus best understood as a proactive maneuver—blunting BJP’s ambitions before candidate lists and alliances crystallize. By laying down a precise number (50), he’s not just projecting confidence—he’s drawing battle lines.
Bengal’s Political Monsoon Is Here
The rain of predictions has already begun in Bengal’s political calendar, and Abhishek Banerjee’s 50-seat remark has set off the first thunderclap. While Mamata Banerjee had painted a scenario of complete BJP obliteration, Abhishek’s figure is more calibrated—strategically modest to be believable, but still assertive enough to energize the cadre.
Suvendu Adhikari’s counter-attack shows the BJP is not in retreat. The party knows that holding ground in Bengal is as much about perception as it is about arithmetic. With two narratives now on a collision course, Bengal’s political summer of 2026 promises to be loud, bitter, and decisive.
