Key Highlights
- Bihar Phase 2 recorded 47.62% voter turnout by 1 PM across 122 constituencies, with 3.7 crore eligible voters deciding the fate of 1,302 candidates
- The Seemanchal region, comprising 24 seats with 47% Muslim population, emerges as the critical battleground that historically determines Bihar’s electoral outcome
- 12 ministers from CM Nitish Kumar’s cabinet are contesting in Bihar Phase 2, with results scheduled for announcement on November 14
Opening Overview
Bihar Phase 2 elections witnessed a substantial voter turnout of 47.62% by 1 PM on Tuesday, as the state’s most politically decisive phase unfolded across 122 assembly constituencies in 20 districts. This final round of polling, which began at 7 AM and continues until 5 PM, involves a massive electorate of 3.7 crore voters who will determine the political future of 1,302 candidates, including 136 women and one third-gender candidate. The spotlight in Bihar Phase 2 firmly rests on the Seemanchal region, a four-district belt bordering Nepal that has historically served as Bihar’s electoral decider, where Muslim voters constitute approximately 47% of the population.
This second phase marks the final and most crucial round of voting, with the first phase on November 6 having recorded a historic 65.08% turnout. The electoral arithmetic in Bihar Phase 2 becomes even more complex with 12 ministers from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s cabinet facing the verdict of voters, while the ruling NDA battles the opposition Mahagathbandhan alongside emerging forces like Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM.​
Seemanchal’s Strategic Electoral Significance
- One-fourth of Bihar’s 2.31 crore Muslim population resides in Seemanchal’s 24 constituencies
- Muslims constitute 68% in Kishanganj, 45% in Araria and Katihar, and 39% in Purnia
- The region accounts for 10% of Bihar’s total 243 assembly seats
The Seemanchal region in Bihar Phase 2 has emerged as the critical electoral battleground that could determine the overall outcome of the 2025 assembly elections. This zone, comprising the districts of Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar, and Purnia, houses approximately one-fourth of Bihar’s total Muslim population of 2.31 crore, making it a politically decisive area that extends influence far beyond its numerical strength of 24 seats. The demographic profile of this region reveals that Muslims form close to 68% of Kishanganj’s population, approximately 44-45% in both Katihar and Araria, and nearly 39% in Purnia, alongside substantial presence of Yadavs and Extremely Backward Classes.
In the 2020 assembly elections, AIMIM won five seats from this Seemanchal belt, though it subsequently lost four MLAs to the RJD within two years. Political observers note that the voting pattern and mandate emanating from Seemanchal’s voters in Bihar Phase 2 will shape the overall electoral narrative of the state, making it the true “decider” region. The contest in Seemanchal has intensified with AIMIM fielding 15 candidates across these four districts, attempting to channel Muslim voter anger over issues including migration, unemployment, and the Waqf Act.​
Voter Turnout Patterns and Electoral Dynamics
| Time | Turnout Percentage | Phase 1 Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| 9:00 AM | 14.55% | 13.13% |
| 11:00 AM | 31.38% | Lower |
| 1:00 PM | 47.62% | Data not comparable |
Bihar Phase 2 registered a robust start with 14.55% voter turnout recorded by 9 AM, outpacing the Phase 1 figure of 13.13% during the same timeframe. By 11 AM, the turnout had climbed to 31.38%, demonstrating strong voter participation across the 122 constituencies spread over 20 districts. Among the districts participating in Bihar Phase 2, Gaya recorded the highest early turnout at 15.97%, followed by Kishanganj at 15.81% and Jamui at 15.77%, while Madhubani registered the lowest at 13.25%.
The polling is taking place at 45,399 polling stations, with the majority located in rural areas, as the Election Commission deployed comprehensive security measures following the Delhi Red Fort blast that left 8 dead and over 20 injured. This final phase involves 3,70,13,556 electors, comprising 1,95,44,041 male voters, 1,74,68,572 female voters, and 943 third-gender voters. The first phase on November 6 witnessed a record 65.08% voter turnout, setting high expectations for Bihar Phase 2. Political analysts view the turnout patterns as crucial indicators, particularly in Seemanchal districts where higher participation traditionally signals consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes.​
High-Stakes Contest and Key Candidates
Bihar Phase 2 features 12 ministers from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s cabinet facing electoral tests, making it a high-stakes round for the ruling NDA government. From the JD(U) side contesting in the second phase, prominent ministers include Vijendra Yadav seeking an eighth term from Supaul, Lesi Singh from Dhamdaha, Jayant Kushwaha from Amarpur, Sumit Singh from Chakai, Mohammad Jama Khan from Chainpur, and Sheela Mandal from Phoolparas.
BJP ministers in Bihar Phase 2 include Prem Kumar from Gaya Town, Renu Devi from Bettiah, Vijay Kumar Mandal from Sikati, Nitish Mishra from Jhanjharpur, Neeraj Bablu from Chhatapur, and Krishnanandan Paswan from Harsiddhi. The polling also features significant contests involving smaller regional parties, with HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party holding four of the six seats it is contesting, including Imamganj and Barachatti where his daughter-in-law Deepa Manjhi and relative Jyoti Devi are key candidates.
In this phase, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha has fielded his wife Snehlata from Sasaram, marking her electoral debut against RJD’s Satendra Sah. Former deputy chief minister Tarkishore Prasad is also contesting from Katihar in Bihar Phase 2, while VIP under Mukesh Sahni, who has been promised the Deputy Chief Minister post if Mahagathbandhan wins, is contesting roughly 15 seats. The electoral landscape includes several turncoats like Sangita Kumari, Vibha Devi, and Murari Gautam who have shifted party allegiances since the last poll.​
Alliance Strategies and Vote Bank Mathematics
| Alliance | 2020 Result | Key Constituencies (Phase 2) |
|---|---|---|
| NDA (BJP+JD(U)+HAM+LJP) | 125 seats (42+20 in Phase 2) | Gaya, Seemanchal border districts |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD+Congress+Left+VIP) | 110 seats (33+11 in Phase 2) | Seemanchal, Champaran, Magadh |
| AIMIM | 5 seats (2020) | Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar, Purnia |
Bihar Phase 2 electoral contest has shaped into a fierce three-cornered battle between the ruling NDA, the opposition Mahagathbandhan, and emerging forces including Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party positioned as the “X factor”. In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, BJP won 42 of the 122 seats in this phase, followed by RJD with 33, JD(U) with 20, and Congress with 11. The NDA strategy in Bihar Phase 2 has involved Prime Minister Narendra Modi claiming that people of Bihar delivered the INDIA bloc a “65-volt jhatka” in the first phase, while also focusing on the “infiltrator” narrative in Seemanchal border areas.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, campaigning in Kishanganj constituency, countered that BJP and RSS are attempting to divide the nation while the INDIA bloc seeks unity. The electoral arithmetic in Bihar Phase 2 becomes complicated by AIMIM’s presence, particularly in Seemanchal where the party is contesting 15 seats with four candidates each in Kishanganj and Purnia, five in Katihar, and two in Araria. Muslim voters in Seemanchal have expressed grievance that Mahagathbandhan chose Mukesh Sahni from the Mallah community, which comprises 2-3% of the population, as Deputy Chief Ministerial face instead of someone from the Muslim community that represents 17% of Bihar’s population.
This sentiment could benefit AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, whose campaign asks a pointed question: “If those representing two percent can become deputy chief ministers, why can’t those representing 18 percent become chief ministers?”. Bihar Phase 2 also features significant contests from HAM, VIP, and RLM parties, whose performance could split votes in key constituencies and impact the final NDA versus Mahagathbandhan arithmetic.​
Closing Assessment
Bihar Phase 2 represents the culminating moment of a politically charged contest where 3.7 crore voters across 122 constituencies will decide whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar secures a record tenth term or Tejashwi Yadav ushers in generational change. The 47.62% turnout recorded by 1 PM in Bihar Phase 2 suggests robust voter engagement, though it remains to be seen whether it will match or exceed the historic 65.08% turnout witnessed in Phase 1.
The Seemanchal region’s performance in Bihar Phase 2 will prove decisive, as the 24 constituencies with their unique demographic composition and complex Muslim-Dalit-Yadav-EBC voter arithmetic hold the power to tilt the overall result. With 12 cabinet ministers fighting for political survival in this second phase, the stakes extend beyond mere seat numbers to the very legitimacy and future direction of state governance.
The outcome on November 14 will reveal whether smaller parties like AIMIM, Jan Suraaj, VIP, and RLM have indeed emerged as genuine alternatives or merely vote-splitters in Bihar’s traditional two-alliance framework. As Bihar Phase 2 polling continues until 5 PM, the democratic exercise unfolding across Seemanchal, Magadh, Champaran, and other regions will ultimately determine if Bihar continues its recent trajectory or charts a fundamentally new political course.
