Key Highlights
- Delhi’s AQI hit severe levels above 400 mid-November 2025, peaking near 450-560 before easing to 327 (Very Poor) by November 26.
- Stubble burning contributed up to 22.47% on November 12 per DSS data, but NCR cities (29.5%), transport (19.7%), and unknown sources (34.8%) drive sustained Delhi Air Pollution.
- GRAP Stage III revoked November 26 as AQI improved slightly; Stages I-II enforced amid forecasts of ongoing Very Poor conditions.
Opening Overview
Delhi air pollution grips the capital in a toxic chokehold this November 2025, with AQI levels soaring past 400 into severe territory before a marginal dip. Delhi air pollution remains entrenched in the Very Poor category, as CPCB bulletins record 327 at 4 PM on November 26 across monitoring stations. Farm fires from Punjab and Haryana spiked contributions to 22.47% on November 12, pushing AQI to 418, yet broader Delhi air pollution factors like regional emissions persist.
This seasonal crisis underscores a complex pollution matrix beyond stubble burning. CPCB data shows Rohini at 368, Jahangirpuri 365, and Wazirpur 369 on November 26, with no zones below 231. As winter inversion traps particulates, Delhi air pollution demands multi-state action, with DSS from Ministry of Earth Sciences highlighting 34.8% from unidentified origins. Official forecasts predict sustained Very Poor AQI through November 29 due to low ventilation indices below 6000 m²/s.
Farm Fires Surge: Timing and Impact Analyzed
- Stubble burning share rose from near-zero in early October to 22.47% on November 12, correlating with AQI peaks.
- Punjab incidents fell to 3,284 (Sep 15-Nov 6) from 5,041 last year; Haryana at 206.
Delhi air pollution intensifies annually with post-harvest stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana, though 2025 data reveals a moderated peak. Decision Support System (DSS) under Ministry of Earth Sciences tracked farm fires at 2.62% by October 17, escalating to 22.47% on November 12 when AQI hit 418 (Severe). By November 18-20, contributions dropped to 2.8-5.4%, yet AQI lingered above 325, signaling farm fires as a trigger, not sole driver.
CAQM reports confirm fewer incidents: Punjab logged 3,284 farm fires from September 15 to November 6, down from 5,041 in 2024, while Haryana recorded 206. CPCB-integrated DSS models, using WRF-Chem and MODIS fire data, forecast below 5% contributions post-peak. Despite reductions via crop residue cofiring (e.g., Punjab TPPs at 3.12 Lakh MT), Delhi air pollution persists, as fires alone explain short spikes amid year-round emissions.
NCR Regional Emissions: Neighboring Cities Lead Load
- Nearby districts like Gautam Buddh Nagar, Gurgaon contribute 29.5% to Delhi PM2.5.
- Transport at 19.7%, industries 3.7%, construction 2.9% add layers.
Delhi air pollution draws heavily from NCR neighbors, with DSS apportionment pinning 29.5% on areas like Gautam Buddh Nagar (Noida 350 AQI), Gurgaon, Karnal, and Meerut on November 26. These transboundary flows exceed farm fires during non-peak days, as low winds (under 10 kmph) hinder dispersion. CPCB bulletins list Noida at 350 (Very Poor, PM2.5) and Greater Noida 322, amplifying Delhi’s 327 average.
CAQM coordinates via GRAP, but fragmented enforcement allows peripheral emissions to dominate. Ventilation indices at 3500 m²/s on November 26 trap pollutants from 19 surrounding districts. Residential (4.8%) and unknown sources (34.8%) compound the issue, evading source-specific curbs. Addressing Delhi air pollution requires NCR-wide monitoring, as CPCB data shows Bhiwadi at 290 (Poor) feeding the smog blanket.
Local Culprits: Transport and Industries Fuel Crisis
- Vehicles contribute 19.7%; dust, residences add 7.7% combined.
- GRAP Stages I-II enforce staggered timings, power mandates.
Within Delhi, transport emerges as a prime Delhi air pollution vector at 19.7%, per DSS sectoral breakdown, worsened by congestion in high-AQI zones like Wazirpur (369). Construction dust (2.9%) and peripheral industries (3.7%) persist despite GRAP bans, while residential emissions (4.8%) from biomass/coal rise in winter. CPCB real-time data underscores PM2.5/PM10 dominance, with Rohini at 368 reflecting vehicular spikes.
GRAP revisions (November 21) advance Stage II at AQI 201-300, mandating 50% office attendance and diesel gen-set curbs. Yet, unknown sources at 34.8% challenge traceability, as IITM forecasts Very Poor AQI (301-400) through November 29. Enhanced CPCB OCEMS for industries and vehicle inspections offer paths forward.
Unknown Sources Mystery: Tracing the 34.8% Enigma
- Unidentified emissions top at 34.8%, defying control.
- DSS models urge granular apportionment.
The shadowy 34.8% from unknown sources looms largest in Delhi air pollution, per DSS, complicating interventions as it evades sectoral tags. CPCB and IITM data suggest fugitive dust, unmonitored small units, or secondary aerosols, amplified by inversions trapping PM2.5. November peaks (e.g., 560 on November 12) persist post-farm fire dips, pointing to local untraceables.
SAFAR/IITM forecasts integrate MODIS and CPCB stations for precision, yet gaps remain. CAQM’s National Clean Air Programme targets non-attainment cities like Delhi via source studies. Resolving this demands AI-driven tracing and zero-emission zones.
Closing Assessment
Delhi air pollution in November 2025 exposes systemic frailties: farm fires peaked briefly at 22.47%, but NCR flows (29.5%), transport (19.7%), and unknowns (34.8%) sustain Very Poor AQI at 327. CPCB bulletins and DSS forecasts signal no quick relief, with ventilation woes through November 29. GRAP tweaks offer tactical wins, like Stage III revocation, yet demand bolder NCR unity.
True progress hinges on tracing the untraceable 34.8% and slashing transport loads via electrification. Without coordinated state action and tech like DSS expansions, Delhi air pollution will recur, imperiling millions annually. Policymakers must prioritize data-driven enforcement over blame.
