Fall of a President: South Korea’s Political Earthquake and the Road Ahead

“One moment you’re leading a nation, the next you’re facing insurrection charges.”

South Korea woke up to a new political reality this week. In a unanimous and historic decision, the Constitutional Court removed President Yoon Suk Yeol from office, abruptly ending his term amid one of the country’s most dramatic constitutional crises since democratization. What began as a power struggle escalated into martial law and concluded with a verdict that could reshape South Korea’s political future.

But this isn’t just the fall of a man—it’s the surfacing of deep divides in the nation’s democracy.

The rate at which we are witnessing one-term presidencies lately is very alarming. South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in an unannounced late-night address, which was quickly opposed by both the public and parliament. He even deployed soldiers to the… pic.twitter.com/VpstGEPxIN

— Mike Sonko (@MikeSonko) December 5, 2024

How Did South Korea Get Here

It all began with a controversial and short-lived declaration of martial law by President Yoon on December 3, 2024. Citing threats from “anti-state elements” and political gridlock, Yoon bypassed legal frameworks and ordered the military to remove lawmakers from parliament—an order that was rescinded just six hours later but not forgotten.

The action sent shockwaves through South Korea’s political establishment. While Yoon’s supporters viewed it as a decisive move to break parliamentary paralysis, critics, legal scholars, and opposition leaders decried it as an unconstitutional coup attempt.

The Constitutional Court agreed. On Friday, all eight justices ruled that Yoon’s declaration of martial law had “no justifiable cause” and directly violated democratic norms and civil liberties.

A Stunning Fall From Grace

Yoon’s rise to power had once been seen as emblematic of anti-corruption zeal. A former star prosecutor, he led the impeachment efforts against disgraced ex-president Park Geun-hye, only to now suffer a similar fate himself.

His presidency started with strong pro-Western alliances—highlighted by a much-publicized state dinner with U.S. President Joe Biden—but it quickly stumbled domestically. A series of controversial labor policies, an unpopular push to increase weekly working hours, and accusations against his wife, Kim Keon Hee, for accepting luxury gifts chipped away at his approval.

Martial law was the final straw.

What Happens to Yoon Now?

The verdict stripped Yoon of all presidential privileges immediately. His security detail is gone. His residence vacated. And more critically, his executive immunity has vanished.

Now a private citizen, Yoon faces criminal charges for insurrection. If convicted, he could face a life sentence—or even capital punishment, though South Korea hasn’t conducted an execution in decades.

But Yoon isn’t the only one under scrutiny. Prosecutors are also expected to intensify their investigations into First Lady Kim Keon Hee, who had previously been shielded by Yoon’s vetoes of investigative motions in parliament.

Public Opinion: A Nation Divided

Yoon’s impeachment has split South Korea. Outside the Constitutional Court, jubilant opposition supporters danced in the streets. Meanwhile, clusters of Yoon’s conservative base gathered near the presidential compound, waving flags and voicing dismay over what they saw as judicial overreach.

This polarization runs deep. To some, Yoon was a protector of order, a man willing to confront what he termed “North Korea-linked anti-state forces.” To others, he became the embodiment of authoritarian overreach.

And yet, both sides agree: this moment marks a turning point.

Who Takes the Reins

For now, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is acting president. Interestingly, Han himself was reinstated only recently after surviving his own impeachment by the parliament—underscoring the chaotic political terrain.

A national election must be held within 60 days. Political observers expect it to occur in early June.

Unlike usual transitions, the new president will take office the day after results are announced—no transition period, no honeymoon phase.

The Frontrunners: Lee Jae-myung Leads the Pack

All eyes are now on Lee Jae-myung, the opposition leader from the Democratic Party. A self-made man who once worked in a factory and overcame serious injury to rise through South Korea’s political ranks, Lee is seen as the most likely successor.

He lost narrowly to Yoon in the 2022 elections—by just 0.73%—but has since rebuilt his political momentum. A recent appeals court ruling overturned an election law conviction against him, further boosting his credibility.

Lee currently holds a 34% approval rating and leads a party that controls the National Assembly. If elected, he’ll have both executive and legislative power to push sweeping reforms.

But his path is not without shadows. Legal cases still linger around his past dealings, and critics question whether a Lee presidency will truly bring stability or merely flip the political pendulum in the opposite direction.

The Conservative Challenge: Kim Moon-soo Rises

Trailing behind Lee is Labour Minister Kim Moon-soo, who represents Yoon’s People Power Party. Polling at around 9%, Kim is viewed by some conservatives as a symbol of principle—particularly for refusing to apologize for Yoon’s martial law attempt, arguing instead for institutional integrity.

Kim’s political arc is unusual. A leftist activist in his youth, he later renounced communism and joined the conservative establishment, citing the failures of socialist regimes. At 73, he may appeal to older conservative voters nostalgic for strongman leadership.

Other candidates from Yoon’s party, like Han Dong-hoon, are also expected to run, but no one has yet emerged as a unifying conservative figure.

What Lies Ahead for South Korea

Beyond its borders, South Korea is under watch. The next president will have to stabilize a fractured political system while navigating complex global alliances—particularly with the U.S. and Japan.

Trump’s likely return to the White House adds a new layer of unpredictability. His past overtures to North Korea upended decades of U.S. foreign policy, and Seoul may need to recalibrate its approach accordingly.

Internally, the economic slowdown, youth unemployment, rising housing costs, and social polarization remain unresolved. Whoever steps into office will face a daunting to-do list on Day One.

Is This the End of Yoonism?

Not necessarily. As political analyst Ji Yeon Hong puts it, “Yoon managed to mobilize a coherent ideological base, particularly among far-right groups. That sentiment doesn’t vanish overnight.”

Yoon’s political legacy—controversial and divisive—may continue through other figures or even in future election cycles. The structural divides he both inherited and inflamed are now part of the national landscape.

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