Summary
- IMD issues red alerts for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat amid relentless heavy rain and flooding risks.
- Kerala and Himachal Pradesh report severe landslides, casualties, and infrastructure damage.
- Seasonal forecasts predict above-normal rainfall for central India, raising concerns about crop loss and economic disruption.
The Rising Toll of India’s 2025 Monsoon Season
India’s monsoon season has entered a critical phase, with heavy rain pounding several states and causing widespread disruption. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red alerts for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat, warning of torrential downpours, swollen rivers, and urban flooding. These alerts follow devastating incidents across Kerala and Himachal Pradesh, where landslides have blocked highways, submerged villages, and displaced hundreds of families.
Satellite INSAT -3DR (CTBT Imagery) Animation indicates intense to very intense convection over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Lakshadweep island area.
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) July 22, 2025
Red nowcast… pic.twitter.com/u8NLSVCsrs
According to the IMD’s latest bulletins, East Rajasthan is expected to receive extremely heavy rain through July 31, while western Madhya Pradesh and coastal Gujarat remain on high alert. Madhya Pradesh’s Susner district recorded a staggering 180 mm of rainfall in a single day, resulting in waterlogged streets and halted train services. Kerala, grappling with intense showers since mid-July, has reported multiple landslides in Idukki and Wayanad districts. Himachal Pradesh’s Kullu and Mandi districts have witnessed similar disasters, triggering evacuations and rescue operations.
Meteorologists note that the 2025 monsoon has been unusually intense. As of late July, India has recorded 7% above-average rainfall compared to the long-period average (LPA). Central India, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, has seen a particularly sharp increase, with Rajasthan alone reporting a 92% surplus rainfall. These anomalies are linked to a strengthening of the monsoon trough and the influence of a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, which has been feeding moisture-laden winds into the heartland.
Monsoon Havoc Across States
- Kerala reports flooding and landslides in Idukki and Wayanad, prompting the evacuation of 600 families.
- Rajasthan’s Kota, Bharatpur, and Jaipur districts face flash floods after 200 mm of heavy rain within 48 hours.
- Himachal Pradesh witnesses a series of landslides in Kullu and Mandi, with key roads blocked and homes damaged.
The southern state of Kerala has borne the brunt of the heavy rain, with the state disaster management authority confirming 10 fatalities and severe property losses. In Himachal Pradesh, flash floods have washed away portions of the Chandigarh-Manali highway, cutting off tourist traffic. These incidents highlight the vulnerability of hill states to landslides triggered by prolonged rainfall, especially in regions where unplanned construction exacerbates soil erosion.
In Rajasthan, the Chambal River has crossed danger levels in parts of Kota, while urban flooding in Jaipur disrupted transportation and left several colonies waterlogged. Gujarat’s Vadodara and Bharuch districts have also reported overflowing rivers, damaging crops, and rural infrastructure.
The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) has deployed teams across these states, conducting rescue operations and setting up relief camps. In Madhya Pradesh, at least 800 people have been evacuated from low-lying areas, and railway services remain suspended in parts of Ratlam and Ujjain.
Underreported Impacts of Heavy Rain
- Farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat face widespread crop damage, with soybean and cotton fields submerged.
- Early data from the agriculture ministry suggest potential losses of up to 20% in some regions.
- Health departments warn of rising cases of waterborne diseases, including cholera and dengue.
While the immediate focus remains on rescue efforts, the prolonged heavy rain has significant economic implications. In Gujarat’s Saurashtra region, thousands of hectares of cotton and groundnut crops have been destroyed. Similarly, soybean farmers in Madhya Pradesh are struggling to salvage their yields after continuous flooding. These crop losses threaten to drive up food prices, particularly for oilseeds and pulses, in the coming months.
Health risks are another underreported consequence. Stagnant floodwaters have created ideal breeding grounds for mosquitoes, raising concerns over vector-borne diseases. The Union Health Ministry has already directed state authorities to ramp up medical surveillance and deploy mobile health units in affected districts.
Furthermore, the heavy rain has impacted key infrastructure projects. Highway construction in Rajasthan and Gujarat has slowed due to flooding, while power outages have been reported in at least 50 districts. Such disruptions underscore the cascading effects of extreme weather events on India’s economy and daily life.
Climate Patterns and Critical Insights
- IMD data confirm a 92% rainfall surplus in Rajasthan and a 35% surplus in Gujarat as of July 28.
- Climate scientists link erratic rainfall to El Niño-neutral conditions transitioning towards La Niña.
- The 2025 monsoon season is forecast to deliver 106% of the long-period average rainfall.
Experts caution that the recent surge in heavy rain is symptomatic of broader climate variability. According to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the 2025 monsoon is influenced by the onset of La Niña conditions, which typically enhance rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Coupled with warming ocean temperatures in the Arabian Sea, this has intensified low-pressure systems and strengthened the monsoon trough.
Dr. Ramesh Kumar of IMD’s Pune office highlights that the May 2025 rainfall, 126.7 mm, the highest since 1901, set the stage for a turbulent season. He warns that while rainfall is critical for agriculture, such concentrated spells can lead to severe flooding and soil degradation. These trends emphasize the need for robust urban drainage systems, better river management, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Future Outlook: What Lies Ahead
- IMD forecasts heavy rain to persist across central India for the next 72 hours.
- Reservoir levels in Gujarat and Rajasthan are nearing full capacity, raising concerns of controlled releases.
- Long-term policy reforms are needed to mitigate climate risks and urban flooding.
The IMD has warned that the next few days could bring additional challenges, with persistent heavy rain likely in Rajasthan’s Kota and Udaipur divisions, western Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Gujarat. Authorities are closely monitoring reservoir levels, particularly the Sardar Sarovar Dam on the Narmada River, which has reached 92% of its live storage capacity. Controlled water releases may be necessary to prevent structural risks, potentially aggravating flooding downstream.
Urban centers like Ahmedabad, Bhopal, and Jaipur remain vulnerable due to inadequate stormwater drainage. Experts argue for immediate investments in urban infrastructure, including flood-resistant roads and modernized sewage systems. At the same time, the agriculture ministry is urging farmers to adopt crop diversification strategies to mitigate monsoon-related risks.
In the long run, India’s vulnerability to heavy rain and flash floods underscores the need for integrated climate adaptation policies. Initiatives such as the National Monsoon Mission and state-level climate action plans must be scaled up to include early warning systems, real-time hydrological mapping, and better coordination between meteorological agencies and local governments.
The Critical Takeaway
The heavy rain battering Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat is more than a seasonal anomaly—it is a stark reminder of India’s growing climate challenge. While immediate relief measures are critical, the broader focus must shift to long-term resilience planning. From strengthening embankments to improving urban infrastructure, proactive measures are necessary to reduce the toll of extreme weather events.
As climate variability increases the frequency and intensity of heavy rain, India’s policy response must be both adaptive and preventive. Failing to do so risks not just economic losses but also the safety and livelihoods of millions. The 2025 monsoon season has already highlighted the urgency of this shift, and the coming weeks will test the nation’s ability to balance relief operations with strategic preparedness.
