Summary
- Japan’s PM Shigeru Ishiba under mounting pressure after LDP loses upper house majority.
- Conservative rivals push for leadership change, with Sanae Takaichi poised to contest.
- Public campaigns and opposition voices call for Ishiba to stay amid fears of far-right shift.
Public Support Clashes with Party Pressure
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s political future is hanging by a thread after Sunday’s upper house elections stripped his coalition of its majority, following a similar setback in the lower chamber earlier this year. While Ishiba, 68, maintains he has not discussed resignation with party colleagues, reports suggest internal movements within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are gaining momentum to oust him.
Conservative LDP members, including former leadership contender Sanae Takaichi, are reportedly gathering signatures for a special meeting to initiate a leadership contest. Takaichi, 64, a nationalist hardliner with a controversial political history, is viewed as a likely successor — and could become Japan’s first woman prime minister if she secures the position.
Surprisingly, Ishiba’s potential departure has triggered support campaigns from across the political spectrum. Online movements under the hashtag #IshibaDon’tQuit have gained traction, with even opposition voices and left-wing figures urging him to stay.
Ishiba is facing growing opposition within his Liberal Democratic Party over his vow to remain in power. Read more: https://t.co/wIjwDQrvy8 pic.twitter.com/vnwNmPDo9D
— South China Morning Post (@SCMPNews) July 23, 2025
Opposition and Public Sentiment
- Public polls show mixed reactions: only 22.9% approve of Ishiba’s government, but 45.8% believe he should not resign.
- Opposition leaders like Taro Yamamoto argue Ishiba remains a “safer choice” compared to a far-right alternative.
- A rally is planned in Tokyo to pressure Ishiba to continue, though attendance numbers remain unclear.
Opposition leaders, despite criticizing Ishiba’s economic policies, fear his departure could pave the way for a government with aggressive nationalist policies. Social Democratic Party lawmaker LaSalle Ishii called Ishiba “the most reasonable LDP leader in recent memory,” warning that a far-right pivot could destabilize Japan’s political climate.
Challenges on Economic and Political Fronts
- Rising prices, especially for staple foods like rice, have dented LDP’s popularity.
- Corruption scandals and declining living standards have fueled voter dissatisfaction.
- Ishiba’s coalition now relies on opposition support to pass legislation, a rare situation for the LDP.
Adding to the pressure, Japan faces a growing social security burden due to its ageing population, while a new trade deal with the United States brings further economic challenges. US President Donald Trump’s administration recently imposed a 15% tariff on Japanese imports — a reduction from the initially threatened 25% — but warned of quarterly reviews that could see tariffs return to the higher rate.
The Road Ahead
The coming weeks could determine Ishiba’s political survival. While grassroots and cross-party support suggest a faction of the public and political class view him as a stabilizing figure, LDP hardliners may push aggressively for leadership change, seeing his electoral setbacks as a sign of weakness.
If Ishiba steps down, Japan could witness a significant ideological shift under a new leader like Takaichi, whose hawkish stances on China and historical issues could alter Japan’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory.
Crossroads for Japan’s Leadership: Stability or Hawkish Shift?
Shigeru Ishiba’s tenure as Japan’s prime minister now teeters between mounting internal party pressure and a surprising wave of public support. While the LDP’s back-to-back election defeats have emboldened conservative rivals like Sanae Takaichi, the public narrative suggests that Ishiba’s moderate stance is valued at a time of economic strain and geopolitical uncertainty.
The final verdict hinges on whether Ishiba can rally enough support within the LDP to survive an impending leadership challenge. His departure could open the door for a hawkish, more nationalist administration that may strain Japan’s diplomatic balance, particularly with China and neighboring nations.
For now, Ishiba remains Japan’s “safe choice,” but without a significant political reset or economic breakthrough, his position may only be a temporary reprieve against a party machinery gearing for change.
