Tensions Ignite Again: What Pakistan’s LoC Breach in Poonch Really Means for India

Jammu & Kashmir — It was supposed to be a routine afternoon along the tense Line of Control (LoC). But at exactly 1:10 PM on April 1, the fragile calm in the Krishna Ghati sector of Poonch shattered. Reports confirmed that Pakistani troops crossed into Indian territory, triggering a confrontation that, while swiftly contained, has reignited concerns over the stability of the 2021 ceasefire agreement.

This wasn’t just another border skirmish — it came days before a high-profile visit by India’s Home Minister Amit Shah to the region and amid an ongoing military operation against militants in the nearby Kathua district. So, was this just another provocation, or a signal of something more deliberate?

Let’s unpack the facts, the fallout, and the fears.

The Indian Army stopped Pakistanis from extracting sand and stones from Poonch River, Rawalkot. Pakistanis are claiming that the Indian Army has entered the PoK and advanced about 100 meters across the LoC.
We will take back what is rightfully ours. pic.twitter.com/slfFg7H7d3

— Kiriti | ཨོཾ་མ་ཎི་པདྨེ་ཧཱུྃ (@in20im) February 25, 2023

A Calculated Breach or Misfire?

According to military sources, the intrusion occurred in the Nangi Tikri area of the Krishna Ghati sector. Pakistani troops reportedly crossed the LoC, leading to a mine blast and unprovoked firing on Indian positions.

The Indian Army’s Nangi Tekri Battalion, under the Krishna Ghati Brigade, retaliated with what has been described as “controlled and calibrated” force. Within minutes, retaliatory firing allegedly left four to five Pakistani soldiers dead, while India confirmed no casualties or infrastructure damage.

Lt. Col. Suneel Bartwal, Defence PRO in Jammu, issued a pointed statement:

The 2021 Ceasefire: Tested, Not Broken (Yet)

This incursion violates the spirit—if not the letter—of the 2021 ceasefire understanding between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO) of both nations. That agreement, lauded at the time as a diplomatic breakthrough, emphasized peace and dialogue over escalation. Yet, incidents like this call into question how sustainable that understanding really is.

In February this year, the two sides even held a brigade-level flag meeting at Chakkan-Da-Bagh to ease rising tensions. Officials described the meeting as “congenial,” with both sides recommitting to peace. But just weeks later, that pledge appears paper-thin.

Pattern or Provocation?

This is not an isolated event. In July 2024, Pakistan’s infamous Border Action Team (BAT) crossed into Kupwara under the cover of poor weather and launched an assault with grenades and gunfire, killing one Indian soldier and injuring four, including a Major.

Military insiders claim this is part of a pattern:

The frequency of these intrusions, particularly in the Krishna Ghati sector, is raising eyebrows. Intelligence reports indicate multiple failed intrusion attempts in the region over recent months.

What’s the Motive?

The timing is not coincidental. Home Minister Amit Shah is expected to visit Jammu and Kashmir from April 7 to 8, a period of high political visibility.

Was the incursion aimed at sending a message or testing India’s reaction time?

One interpretation suggests it was a diversion tactic, providing cover for insurgent activity in adjacent areas like Kathua, where Indian forces are already engaged in a counterterrorism operation.

An alternative view from Pakistani analysts insists the mine blast may have been accidental or triggered by unplanned troop movement in rugged terrain. They argue that Indian retaliation escalated what could’ve been resolved via military-to-military communication.

🕊️ Hope Amidst Hostility?

Despite this flare-up, backchannel communications appear to be active. Army officials from both nations are reportedly working to de-escalate locally, rather than involve national leaderships—a sign that operational-level communication lines are still functional.

Moreover, past flag meetings and informal talks demonstrate a shared interest in preventing broader escalation—especially as both countries deal with domestic challenges, economic recovery, and elections on the horizon.

The Bigger Picture: A Cold Peace on Thin Ice

While full-scale war remains unlikely, a low-intensity conflict could be brewing if such provocations continue. The LoC has largely held since February 2021, but cracks are beginning to show.

With growing militant activity in Jammu, increasing cross-border firings, and political pressures on both sides, the region is drifting toward a more volatile state—a cold peace, constantly threatened by local actions spiraling into national consequences.

The Way Forward: Drones, Diplomacy & Deterrence

Military observers are advocating for:

• Enhanced surveillance using drones and thermal imaging.
• Renewed DGMO-level talks to reinforce ground protocols.
• Diplomatic initiatives via neutral third parties to restore faith in ceasefire pacts.

But at the heart of it lies an old truth: peace requires more than agreements—it needs intent. Until both sides not only sign but enforce what they agree upon, incidents like this will remain tragically predictable.

FAQ