Summary
- US President Donald Trump has imposed a 50% import duty on Indian goods, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian crude.
- A US survey shows 53% of Americans oppose the tariffs, while 43% support them, highlighting domestic division.
- India has called the move “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” warning of a significant economic impact on bilateral trade.
Trump Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil
The announcement of Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil marks one of the sharpest turns in US-India economic relations in recent years. In early August 2025, President Donald Trump doubled import duties on Indian goods to 50%, stacking an additional 25% tariff over an earlier 25% duty. This measure was framed as a strategic attempt to dissuade India from buying discounted Russian crude, which has been a cornerstone of New Delhi’s energy security since the onset of the Ukraine war.
The timing of the decision is significant. Global energy markets remain fragile, and the US administration is intensifying its trade wars on multiple fronts. India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, sources nearly 38% of its refining feedstock from Russia. Cutting this supply without an immediate alternative could raise fuel costs domestically, disrupt refining margins, and potentially slow economic growth.
For Washington, the policy is about more than oil. The Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil signal a readiness to use trade restrictions as a geopolitical tool, not just a commercial measure. Yet, a recent Democracy Institute survey reveals that while Americans generally support protectionist tariffs in principle, more than half believe targeting India over its Russian oil trade was the wrong move.
Trump just imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods!
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) August 6, 2025
That includes a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil.
After 3 hours of Witkoff-Putin conversation today, the White House released a rambling report on “Russian threat” and blamed India for supporting Moscow.
Welcome to 🤡 🌍 pic.twitter.com/FVqDRcu34i
Tariffs as Geopolitical Leverage
The Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil were justified by the White House as a means to pressure Russia indirectly. By raising duties on Indian exports, the US aims to make Russian crude purchases less attractive for New Delhi, pushing India toward alternative energy sources.
According to the US Department of Commerce, nearly 55% of India’s merchandise exports to America will be affected by these tariffs. Key sectors likely to bear the brunt include textiles, gems and jewellery, seafood, and automotive parts.
Despite the sharp escalation, oil markets have not reacted with significant volatility. Analysts believe this muted response reflects expectations of eventual compromise or gradual diversification of India’s crude supply rather than abrupt disruption.
Public and Political Reactions
Divided US Public Opinion
A Democracy Institute poll conducted between August 3 and 5 found that 53% of respondents opposed the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil, while 43% supported them. The survey also revealed that 64% of Americans see India’s growing economic influence as a “good thing,” and 59% believe Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership benefits the US.
Discontent Among Protectionists
While tariffs remain popular as an industrial policy instrument, scepticism is rising over their use to influence the geopolitical decisions of allies. Patrick Basham, director of the Democracy Institute, noted that Americans are “unimpressed by [Trump’s] increasing use of tariffs to leverage geopolitical decisions.”
H-1B Visa as a Flashpoint
The same survey found over 60% support for ending the H-1B visa programme, which disproportionately benefits skilled Indian professionals. This finding underscores how, alongside the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil, broader labour market debates also influence perceptions of India in the US.
India’s Strategic and Economic Calculus
Energy Security Priorities
India has defended its purchase of Russian oil as essential for maintaining domestic price stability. The discount pricing on Russian crude supports India’s refining sector and helps shield consumers from global oil price spikes. Any reduction in imports could raise inflation and strain government subsidies on fuel, a key concern for policymakers facing upcoming state elections.
Export Vulnerabilities
For export-driven industries, the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil pose a competitive disadvantage in the US market. Indian jewellery and textile exporters risk losing market share to producers in tariff-exempt countries, forcing some to explore alternative markets in Europe and Southeast Asia.
Diplomatic Repercussions
The Ministry of External Affairs has called the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” arguing that India’s energy policy reflects strategic autonomy. Diplomats privately warn that prolonged tariff pressure could push India toward closer economic cooperation with China and Russia through the BRICS framework.
Historical Context
The US has previously used trade restrictions to pressure nations over political disagreements, but applying such measures to a strategic partner of India’s stature is unusual. This precedent, set by the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil, may erode the trust underpinning bilateral cooperation.
Possible Pathways and Global Implications
Scope for Negotiation
Although President Trump has ruled out immediate trade talks with India until the tariff issue is resolved, analysts suggest quiet back-channel negotiations are already in motion. Both sides recognise that prolonged enforcement of the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil could harm broader strategic objectives.
Shifting Energy Sources
India could seek greater crude imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or the UAE to offset reduced Russian supply. However, such diversification would require long-term contracts at potentially higher prices, making the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil a costly catalyst for change.
Influence on Global Energy Markets
If India scales back its Russian oil imports, Moscow may turn to other buyers such as China or Turkey. This shift could alter shipping routes, pricing mechanisms, and alliances in the global energy market, with the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil playing a central role in that realignment.
Corporate Concerns
US companies operating in India—particularly in manufacturing and IT services—fear that trade tensions linked to the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil could trigger retaliatory measures or stricter investment rules, complicating business operations.
Final Thoughts
The imposition of Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil has injected uncertainty into one of the world’s most important bilateral relationships. While the stated aim is to weaken Russia’s oil-based revenues, the move risks straining decades of steady economic and strategic progress between Washington and New Delhi.
Public opinion in the US remains divided, reflecting the difficulty of balancing geopolitical objectives with trade and alliance management. For India, the challenge will be to safeguard its energy security while maintaining access to the US market—both vital pillars of its economic strategy.
The next few months will determine whether the Trump tariffs on India over Russian oil become a temporary bargaining chip or a lasting fracture in US-India ties. Much will depend on whether both sides can reconcile economic pragmatism with their strategic priorities.
