Arctic Warming to Triple Global Average by 2029

SCIENCE

By Aniket Chakraborty May 30, 2025 Arrow

The World Meteorological Organization predicts record global heat through 2029.

[{"selector":"#anim-04c98e2d-8789-4f70-89e0-dd6349934220","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f9a8846f-f2a1-4d21-9c77-112907203213","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8ac312ec-050b-4786-882c-89d08a74d441","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 124.17693%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-e68709c7-c254-4979-8782-b48c6b3cfa4f","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1372.57024%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -385.966751488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -131.217714944%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -49.275271616000005%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -21.412095744%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] Arrow 2

There’s an 80% chance that at least one year will break all previous heat records.

[{"selector":"#anim-6cefe75d-a7af-4d99-b589-21e5da41c5d6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-eccfe86c-e0be-41e7-9446-7e103972bd8d","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 155.94311%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ea25de73-8a24-4c4a-983e-67b228844143","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-685dbb8b-9226-402f-bc0e-7ea9b2a925ff","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 3

Average global temperatures may surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

[{"selector":"#anim-b1a08bb3-3e58-4d23-8b99-09975e01a6f3","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-8e05cf59-0046-44b1-bd0e-0bbf36442775","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 157.10592%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4ab519b6-2b97-46d9-9824-5c820b58c147","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-ea4f4c7d-370e-489d-af9c-f184713f03b9","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 4

That threshold marks the danger line set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

[{"selector":"#anim-b09aebdd-3251-4706-8777-1d4b6aa22914","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-4f8b35ed-0cf5-4540-ad54-b2e3e290df77","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 160.01332%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-52d55d41-bb48-49c6-8a8e-3bee412fa4c0","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-03fccf46-aeed-4202-8ce8-15cc903e9f2d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 5

Arctic ice melt and Pacific Ocean heating are accelerating faster than ever.

[{"selector":"#anim-f8a3b023-bd14-4683-8b3e-66693186628d","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-f5ba3b5a-0ba7-4de3-b7cc-0c3833f965b8","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 155.94311%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-41c3e0d2-2361-4ae0-a004-33d1ff6eb987","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c599048e-f4c6-4327-9f71-8d9cca50a4a6","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 6

Rising temperatures fuel deadly heatwaves, floods, droughts, and sea level rise.

[{"selector":"#anim-d37eb597-1988-48db-969a-4302a5b2fe94","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-79b0b74f-c405-4680-a1af-0552218383fc","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 155.36172%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-3b7a0a95-a58b-46f3-98da-45b62d3d7204","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-48f0a10e-466f-4d6e-acc6-0aad7c2fcced","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 7

Northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia may face heavier-than-normal rainfall.

[{"selector":"#anim-35d43441-3da0-40c3-8fb0-8e99342e9a66","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-66bf5e21-9c6b-4b8d-82b7-c4080c36ad73","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 155.36172%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-0416ee5f-0f0b-441f-8fa5-241ef96ff064","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-c6f2cf18-7ab3-4ff7-b641-71283197b52c","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 8

But regions like the Amazon could experience severe, prolonged drought.

[{"selector":"#anim-b0792617-4c26-4f68-873c-3cae7fab2bf2","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b053fee7-575c-4cd5-96e1-b8c458f3372f","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 165.97653%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-13239e96-1bd3-4fe6-9a8c-8df3b4fd56cc","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-beae4306-52e6-4264-ae86-03d88b0055ec","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] Arrow 9

UN experts say the next five years could redefine Earth’s climate reality.

[{"selector":"#anim-0d57b448-64b4-4e35-9a8f-2175b24c9996","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-7490f8ca-3f9c-4b09-ad90-7f6b60d80ade","keyframes":{"transform":["translate3d(0px, 155.36172%, 0)","translate3d(0px, 0px, 0)"]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.6, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-b71de322-e685-4b1d-9219-932e0748e25f","keyframes":[{"offset":0,"transform":"translate3d(0, -1413.62032%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.29,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.45,"transform":"translate3d(0, -397.510033984%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.61,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.71,"transform":"translate3d(0, -135.14210259200001%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.8,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.85,"transform":"translate3d(0, -50.748969488%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":0.92,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"},{"offset":0.96,"transform":"translate3d(0, -22.052476992%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(.5, 0, 1, 1)"},{"offset":1,"transform":"translate3d(0, 0%, 0)","easing":"cubic-bezier(0, 0, .5, 1)"}],"delay":0,"duration":600,"fill":"both"}] [{"selector":"#anim-56598072-62c9-4ddb-b46c-a6c44140679b","keyframes":{"opacity":[0,1]},"delay":0,"duration":600,"easing":"cubic-bezier(0.4, 0.4, 0.0, 1)","fill":"both"}] 10