Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2023, is approximately the size of the Statue of Liberty and poses a potential threat to Earth.
By Aniket Chakrborty
Feb 12, 2025
Impact probability has increased from initial 1.2% to 2.3%, creating a "one in 43" chance of collision with Earth.
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The possible impact date is calculated to be December 2, 2032, with the asteroid currently rated 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
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If it strikes, the asteroid could release energy equal to 15 megatons of TNT, 100 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
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Complete destruction would occur within 5.7 km of impact, with severe damage up to 8.8 km and potential fatalities as far as 19 km away.
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A strike on London could devastate areas from Westminster to Croydon, with similar destruction possible in cities like Manchester, Belfast, and Edinburgh.
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Earth's surface being mostly water makes an ocean impact more likely, potentially reducing the risk to populated areas.
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Currently, NASA lacks the technology to deflect an asteroid of this size, though the DART mission has tested asteroid redirection on smaller objects.
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2024 YR4 is the only known asteroid with an impact probability higher than 1%, making it unique among current threats.
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Scientists continue to track the asteroid's path, with future calculations expected to provide more accurate predictions of the potential risk.