Summary
- Netanyahu’s cryptic Western Wall note and “Operation Rising Lion” airstrikes on Iran suggest a dual objective: military deterrence and regime destabilization.
- Israeli and Iranian commentators hint the true “rising lion” could be the Iranian public, disillusioned by decades of repression and corruption.
- Yet deep fractures within Iran’s opposition, tight regime control, and the absence of foreign military ground support cast doubt on any imminent revolution.
A Lion Awakens: From Western Wall Prayers to Tehran’s Shockwaves
On June 12, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left a note at the Western Wall quoting a verse with visceral imagery: “The people shall rise up as a great lion… eat the prey… drink the blood of the slain.” Initially read as a rallying cry against Iran, this cryptic line took on a more complex tone a day later when Israel launched Operation Rising Lion—a sweeping airstrike across Iran.
This wasn’t just military posturing. It was a psychological gambit as much as a geopolitical move. Iran’s nuclear sites in Natanz, command hubs in Tehran, and military assets across Shiraz, Esfahan, and Kermanshah came under fire. Yet amid the roar of missiles, another aim surfaced—subtle, strategic, and arguably more transformative: to nudge Iranians toward regime change.
What began as an operation rooted in battlefield calculus now teeters on the edge of ideological warfare, with Israeli voices openly invoking Persian history and Iranian exiles urging a “second liberation.” Whether symbolic gestures can transform into mass resistance is uncertain. But the battle for Iran’s future may not be fought in bunkers—it could be building in the minds of its people.
Rasanah’s initial assessment | Rising Lion: Israel’s unprecedented strike on Iran Explore the full breakdown of Israel’s June 13 offensive—its goals, tactics, and repercussions for Iran’s political system, nuclear future and regional stability.
— معهد رصانة- RASANAH INSTITUTE (@rasanahiiis) June 15, 2025
A defining moment in Middle East… pic.twitter.com/oUeBF5X4Be
Striking the Iron Wall: How “Operation Rising Lion” Reignited an Ancient Rift
- Over 200 Israeli jets and drones struck deep into Iran’s military and nuclear assets in one of the most intense regional airstrikes since 2007.
- Netanyahu’s religious and military symbolism hinted at more than strategic containment—it hinted at collapse from within.
- Ali Shadmani, Iran’s wartime chief, was allegedly killed in an Israeli airstrike, though Tehran remains silent.
- Israel claims senior Iranian officials are “packing their bags”—a sign of fear, or crafted narrative?
Netanyahu’s June 12 note—now revealed in full—appears to have been a deliberate prelude to the onslaught. The imagery of the “lion rising” echoes both Zionist and Persian symbols, offering a metaphor pliable enough to appeal to both Israeli resilience and Iranian rebellion.
In the week that followed, Israel turned the metaphor into missile fire. Airstrikes targeted not only facilities but symbols: the regime’s confidence in its nuclear shield, its propaganda of regional invincibility, and its control of narrative within Iran.
Yet as military action escalated, Netanyahu’s language evolved. “Senior leaders in Iran are already packing their bags,” he declared, fueling speculation about whether Israel was eyeing regime destabilization as a parallel objective.
Voices Within and Beyond: Iranians Urged to Rise from Ashes
- Exiled opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi and MeK leaders have publicly supported the strikes and urged internal resistance.
- Social media commentary by Iranian analysts and Israeli allies calls on shared cultural heritage to suggest historic friendship.
- Young Iranians, still reeling from Mahsa Amini’s death and years of repression, are seen as a volatile force for change.
- Israeli security insiders suggest local help from within Iran during drone operations—though unverified.
What if Netanyahu’s lion isn’t Israeli at all—but Iranian?
That’s the provocative suggestion being floated by political analysts and X users alike. Iranian dissident Navid Mohebbi invoked Cyrus the Great, who freed the Jews from Babylonian captivity, writing: “Perhaps today, it is Israel’s historic turn to help the Iranian people win their own freedom.”
Professor Eugene Kontorovich echoed it: “Rising Lion… reminds the people of Iran that Israel is not their enemy.”
The idea has gained traction especially among the diaspora and younger Iranians. Their grievances are no longer whispered; they’ve been chanted in the streets since 2022 when Mahsa Amini’s death catalyzed widespread protests. Yet the fire, while smoldering, has yet to become an inferno.
Former Israeli General Giora Eiland suggested that “three levels” of Iranian collaboration may be underway—from aiding Israeli operatives inside Iran, to covert encouragement of conventional military defectors, to overt calls for public rebellion.
Revolutionary Dreams or Delusion? The Hard Reality of Iran’s Opposition
- Iran’s opposition groups—MeK, royalists, secular youth—remain fragmented, ideologically divided, and often operate from exile.
- Internal repression is brutal, coordinated, and supported by decades of intelligence buildup by the IRGC.
- Experts warn that aerial strikes alone don’t collapse regimes—boots on the ground or mass civic uprising are essential.
- Even if regime change occurs, the post-Khamenei landscape could range from civil war to autocracy.
The seductive clarity of symbolic operations like “Rising Lion” often clashes with the murky terrain of revolution. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House noted that unless a ground invasion akin to Iraq 2003 follows, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to topple through strikes alone.
Furthermore, opposition groups lack cohesion. The monarchists have nostalgia but limited grassroots appeal. MeK is tainted by its cult-like structure and past allegiances. Secular youth movements lack arms and logistics. All are watched closely by Iran’s intelligence forces.
Vakil offered four chilling scenarios if the regime collapses: a North Korea-style pariah, a Syria-style civil war, an Egypt-style military state, or an Iraq-style dictatorship. None are hopeful.
Between Roar and Ruin: The Fate of Iran’s Rising Lion
While Israel’s missiles struck military installations, its message struck deeper—into the psyche of a disillusioned nation. “Rising Lion” isn’t just a codename—it’s a provocation, a dare, and perhaps a prophecy.
But revolutions don’t rise on hashtags. They rise on bread shortages, battered pride, and unbearable silence. Iran has all three—but also a regime built on four decades of survival strategy and regional entrenchment.
If change does come, it may not be in the form Israel or the exiled opposition envision. The lion may rise—but it may not roar where they expect, or when they desire.
